Laying chalk is a strategy oddsmakers easily countered with inflated spreads, run/pucklines (my obligatory hockey shout out for the year) and severely juiced moneylines. In a sport like baseball, the best team usually hovers around a .600 winning percentage so why risk taking any team at higher than -150? The only value you can find here is creating your own teaser or parlay, and well, we all know how that goes.
Sorry, Canada.
This leads us to the 2009 NFL season. In my season opening blog I did my best to steer anyone who works hard for their money as far away from the No Fun League as possible. That was before weeks 1-7 proceeded to destroy my “NFL is the perfect parity machine” theory. This season has officially mutated into a chalk bettor’s heaven. The big dogs (Saints, Giants, Colts) are covering double-digit spreads with ease. This past week we saw favorites go 9-2-1 with six teams covering a touchdown or larger spread. Every week the sharps have warned Joe Public that the all-knowing oddsmakers will even out this number with painful results for those who choose to jump on the chalk bandwagon. The result? We’re one week away from mid-season and the favorites just keep on rolling. A fourth-quarter Saints flurry to erase a 21-point deficit over the Dolphins guaranteed that the NFL would have three undefeated teams (Saints, Broncos, Colts) heading into week eight for the first time in league history. Clearly, we are on unprecedented ground with this trend.
Enough crying. What can we do about this?
1. Pay close attention to scheduling. Many teams are entering the teeth of their division schedules. Look for value in the underdogs in the tougher divisions (AFC East/North, NFC East) in interdivision games. Division play features more familiarity between coaching schemes, similar pace, and less travel. You can worry less about a jetlagged teams history in mountain-central time or how a southern team will handle sleet and opposing fans’ snowballs once they are playing the majority of their remaining games within their division.
2. Stay away from heavy road chalk. Everyone is well aware that large road favorites are covering at record pace this season but remember again we are entering division play where double-digit blowouts are rare. The majority of road blowouts this season haven’t happened in traditional matchups, they’ve happened in once every five year matchups such as the Giants-Bucs, Saints-Bills, Jets-Raiders.
3. Create a tier-system for teams. Teams ranked in the lowest tier (Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Browns) qualify as candidates to risk large spreads against in the right situation. Mid-tier teams (Dolphins, Titans, Seahawks) who have faced a brutal 1st half schedules warrant strong consideration if they are getting points against top-tier teams, especially when they’re at home. For the record, I’m willing to wager my lunch money that the Titans finish .500 or better the second half of the season.
4. Finally, don’t read too much into the chalk trend. Focus on individual matchups and crunch numbers instead. Some weeks you’ll come up with more favorites, others you’ll have a stable of dogs. Either way, make sure you’re picking based on your research rather than blindly following a trend or gut feeling.
I know this season has thrown our chalk loving friends a slow fastball down the middle. We might be even be questioning our own time consuming research and considering abandoning discussion with fellow handicappers in the forums. Resist the urge to switch horses midstream. There’s plenty of football left to be played. Don’t forget every dog has his day.
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