MMA Fans Take a Low Blow at UFC 112

UFC middleweight champ Andersen Silva's unanimous decision victory over Demaian Maia on Saturday should have cleared the last hurdle for a mega fight between Silva and Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. Fight fans salivating at the potential dream matchup took a spinning side kick below the belt instead.

“I don’t think I’ve ever been more embarrassed in 10 years of being in this business," said UFC president Dana White. "It’s the first time I’ve ever walked out of a main event.”

Such grandiose statements from White are usually taken with a grain of salt because he's built the UFC by taking controversial moments and embellishing them to promote his product. But Silva's uninspired performance at UFC 112 gave not only White, but the sport of MMA plenty of reasons to feel red-faced.

Silva spent the first two rounds masterfully rearranging Maia's face with a combination of creative strikes; he broke the challenger's nose with a matrix-worthy flying knee midway through the second round. As Maia answered the bell for the third round, Demian himself looked as if he expected Silva to put him out of his misery. That's when Silva went Spanish matador on us, spending the next fifteen minutes circling his wounded opponent and stubbornly refused to engage him. He taunted Maia in Portuguese (subtitles should have read "Ole!") and by the end of the fight fans were chanting "Maia! Maia!" in frustration.

“Unfortunately, not every fight turns out the way everyone would like,” Silva said through his interpreter following the fight. “I came here well-trained, but Demian disrespected me, not as a person, but he disrespected me as a fighter. I take that very seriously. I came here to do my job, which was to beat him up and punish him. That’s exactly what I did.”

Silva's right about one thing: fighters can't always appease the masses with brain rattling knockouts. But the talented Brazilian Striker remains an enigma because he has all the necessary tools to destroy opponents in the first ninety seconds yet he has consistently resorted to yawning defensive tactics in has past three fights. Silva's soft spoken post-fight interviews over the past couple years have revealed little remorse or explanation for his arrogant antics in the ring.

Fighting is a different breed of sport because it's the only one where it's not enough to just win. The majority of fans watch fights to fulfill the primordial desire of seeing one man beat the living tar out of another. A fighter's legacy is measured by blood, not boxscores. This is a fact Silva stubbornly refuses to acknowledge, endangering the future of both his career and MMA's canonization as a mainstream sport.

White was equally frustrated after hearing Silva's responses to criticism following the fight: “I’m more unhappy than I was when I walked in the door,” he said. “That’s why I ended the news conference. I couldn’t stand to listen to that [expletive] any more.”

What about the possibility of Silva moving down to welterweight to fight Georges St. Pierre? “He doesn’t deserve to fight GSP." said White. White knows the fight could rival Pacquiao-Mayweather on the hype meter but understandably wants to avoid irreparably damaging the UFC's reputation with a similar letdown. GSP-Silva would would be the biggest event in the history of MMA and White isn't going to green light it until he's sure Silva is going to give fans a real fight.

Rumors swirl that Silva is intentionally tanking in order to be relieved of his contract so he can pursue a boxing career. Message boards suggest his heart is no longer with MMA but set on boxing 41-year old Roy Jones Jr (who is coming off consecutive lopsided losses). Joe Rogan openly suggested he may have been using his matador act as a smokescreen for fatigue. The problem is Silva is known for superior conditioning and has never gassed in a fight throughout his eleven-year career. His chiseled physique shows no visible signs of aging or injury.

Before the UFC can expect it's loyal, pimple-faced fans to pony up another sixty dollars for Silva's next event, they need to figure out why Silva refuses to finish fights. The only person who really knows is Silva himself.

The Chalkboard

Everyone has a friend whose betting strategy is simple as it is stupid: lay chalk across the board. He tries to convince you taking USC -45 over Washington State is the lock of the week despite the fact that the Trojans have yet to cross the 30-point barrier all season. The Yankees at -325 with CC on the mound? No problem, the Yanks have won nine straight! You forget to inform him he hasn’t done his homework because the Evil Empire clinched the night before and is starting their AAA lineup behind Sabathia. Sometimes these chalk bettors just need to learn a lesson. Now you have to lend this chump buffet money for the rest of the trip because he forgot the number one handicapping rule: don’t fall in love with favorites.

Laying chalk is a strategy oddsmakers easily countered with inflated spreads, run/pucklines (my obligatory hockey shout out for the year) and severely juiced moneylines. In a sport like baseball, the best team usually hovers around a .600 winning percentage so why risk taking any team at higher than -150? The only value you can find here is creating your own teaser or parlay, and well, we all know how that goes.


Sorry, Canada.

This leads us to the 2009 NFL season. In my season opening blog I did my best to steer anyone who works hard for their money as far away from the No Fun League as possible. That was before weeks 1-7 proceeded to destroy my “NFL is the perfect parity machine” theory. This season has officially mutated into a chalk bettor’s heaven. The big dogs (Saints, Giants, Colts) are covering double-digit spreads with ease. This past week we saw favorites go 9-2-1 with six teams covering a touchdown or larger spread. Every week the sharps have warned Joe Public that the all-knowing oddsmakers will even out this number with painful results for those who choose to jump on the chalk bandwagon. The result? We’re one week away from mid-season and the favorites just keep on rolling. A fourth-quarter Saints flurry to erase a 21-point deficit over the Dolphins guaranteed that the NFL would have three undefeated teams (Saints, Broncos, Colts) heading into week eight for the first time in league history. Clearly, we are on unprecedented ground with this trend.

Enough crying. What can we do about this?

1. Pay close attention to scheduling. Many teams are entering the teeth of their division schedules. Look for value in the underdogs in the tougher divisions (AFC East/North, NFC East) in interdivision games. Division play features more familiarity between coaching schemes, similar pace, and less travel. You can worry less about a jetlagged teams history in mountain-central time or how a southern team will handle sleet and opposing fans’ snowballs once they are playing the majority of their remaining games within their division.

2. Stay away from heavy road chalk. Everyone is well aware that large road favorites are covering at record pace this season but remember again we are entering division play where double-digit blowouts are rare. The majority of road blowouts this season haven’t happened in traditional matchups, they’ve happened in once every five year matchups such as the Giants-Bucs, Saints-Bills, Jets-Raiders.

3. Create a tier-system for teams. Teams ranked in the lowest tier (Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Browns) qualify as candidates to risk large spreads against in the right situation. Mid-tier teams (Dolphins, Titans, Seahawks) who have faced a brutal 1st half schedules warrant strong consideration if they are getting points against top-tier teams, especially when they’re at home. For the record, I’m willing to wager my lunch money that the Titans finish .500 or better the second half of the season.

4. Finally, don’t read too much into the chalk trend. Focus on individual matchups and crunch numbers instead. Some weeks you’ll come up with more favorites, others you’ll have a stable of dogs. Either way, make sure you’re picking based on your research rather than blindly following a trend or gut feeling.

I know this season has thrown our chalk loving friends a slow fastball down the middle. We might be even be questioning our own time consuming research and considering abandoning discussion with fellow handicappers in the forums. Resist the urge to switch horses midstream. There’s plenty of football left to be played. Don’t forget every dog has his day.

How to Lose Your Bankroll in Seven Days

Parlaying is a lot like communism. It’s a great concept that works in a perfect world. There’s only one problem: the world ain’t perfect. Sports bettors who swim in the parlay tank are flawed creatures. Their demise is inevitable because they swing for the fences instead of working small edges and carefully managing their bankrolls. Sometimes you have to learn the hard way. Just ask my bank account.


The fun is definitely over.

Rewind to week three of the NFL season. After a profitable college football Saturday, I made the ingenious decision to let it ride on a juicy three-team NFL parlay. With two already in the bag, I needed the Steelers to cover a measly three points versus the Bengals (I will henceforward refer to them as the Bungles). Ben Roethlisberger was dissecting the Bungles secondary at will; capping off a seven minute drive with a one-yard superman touchdown dive. Pittsburgh cruised into the fourth quarter holding an eleven point advantage. All was well in parlayland.

Then it happened. Roethilsberger threw a pick-six. Cedric “I’m on a boat” Benson rumbled 23 yards to cut the lead to five. After another Pitt three and out, Carson Palmer woke up from his Steeler induced coma and marched the Bungles down to the Pittsburgh twenty-yard line. After a fourth and two completion to Laveranues Coles to the fifteen I got a sinking feeling of defeat in my stomach. I knew it was over.

There’s a funny thing about parlays. No matter how bleak the outlook, they always throw you a bone on your last leg. Palmer spiked the ball on first down instead of calling a timeout. A rabid James Harrison forced Palmer to throw two quick incompletions to Ocho Cinco and Chris Henry. Fourth and ten with thirty-six ticks remaining. The Bungles called their last timeout and I was pacing hopelessly around my living room. The momentum for Cinci was a runaway freight train and I was powerless to stop it. My heart sank after third-string back Brian Leonard caught a short pass and rumbled through three Pittsburgh defenders for a first down. The next play Palmer fired a game winning four-yard touchdown strike to Andre Caldwell. The Bungles were back.


Yep, I was Bungalised

What followed violated every handicapping rule in the book. I took the only game left on the board, the Sunday night Colts-Cardinals game and parlayed it big. Whiff. Monday night I parlayed the Cowboys-Panthers game for half my bankroll. Whiff. I took the rest and placed three monster parlays for week four. At this point there was no research, no leans, there was only action. It was pure tilt, chasing losses with no regard for my remaining bankroll.


The King of Tilt. I feel you, Mikey. I really do.

After another 0-3 plate appearance I was done. Seven days of tilt erased six months of responsible systemized wagering. Just like that it was over.

“Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts, absolutely.” Lord Acton didn’t have English Premier League parlays in mind when he coined his quote, but his words cannot ring truer. Parlays corrupt, absolute parlays corrupt, absolutely. They corrupted my discipline, my objective mind, and ultimately my bankroll.

Before you dive headfirst into the parlay tank with the oddsmaker and bookie sharks remember you have a much larger edge betting straight over the long run. I’ve heard the argument parlays eliminate the ten percent juice the house takes on straight wagers. But if you can’t beat the juice straight up you’ll never turn a profit parlaying. If you don’t believe me, they are always hiring at Wendy’s. I’m hoping to get promoted to shift manager by the end of the month.

Ricky's Revenge

Lost in the smoke of the Miami Dolphins last second 31-27 Monday victory over the New York Jets was the game’s statistical hero, some guy people may remember as Ricky Williams. Williams accumulated a game-high 144 yards from scrimmage, averaging six yards per touch. Yet postgame praise focused on platoon mate Ronnie Brown (who was equally impressive) and his mastery of the NFL’s most overused two words: the wildcat. Sideline reporter Andrea Kremer sprinted past Williams to shove a mic in the face of Miami quarterback Chad Henne. There was zero mention of Ricky. I can’t help but get the feeling Ricky is just fine with that.

A self proclaimed vegan and active member of PETA, Williams has quietly become the NFL’s anti-Vick. After a multiyear absence, Ricky has made himself relevant in the one place where Vick has not: the football field. There’s no question he’s back as a football player, but the real dilemma for fans is whether he cares. Has Ricky really changed as a person since his suspension?
“I get defensive,” says Ricky when asked this question by the New York Times in a preseason interview. “I like to think I’m the same person. I just have more clarity.”
The problem for Dolphins fans is that the “same person” abandoned their franchise two days before their 2007 training camp for a dime bag of alfalfa and a bottomless box of cheezits. The fallout was not pretty for the Fins: a franchise worst 1-15 mark. Fans were unwilling to forgive, forever labeling him as the NFL’s posterboy pothead.

“Since I’ve become famous for it, I’m amazed at how many people ask me to smoke,” Williams says. “For me to move on with my career, this has to be behind me. I don’t want to keep being reminded of it on a daily basis.”

We can’t blame Williams for avoiding incessant questions about his past. Still, fans itch to know if he’s only in it for the paycheck because the cardinal sin in sports for fans is an athlete who doesn’t love the game. In the back of our minds we still dream of hoisting the Heisman trophy or shaking the commish’s hand on draft day. Ricky was blessed with the talent to enjoy these moments; so it’s infuriating for a lot of us diehards to accept the fact he chose hot room yoga over the professional gridiron.
“At the core, we’re all spiritual beings,” Williams tells the New York Times. “It’s something that I had been pushing down my whole life. The search for meaning, I guess, the whispering of the soul.”

Not exactly words that strike fear into opposing defenses, right? What fans really want from Williams is to see his passion for winning. They want him to tweet “just finished third cycle of roids. give thirty-four the damn ball!” How about a choreographed fine-inducing endzone dance, Ricky? Please, please at least remove your helmet during locker room interviews?

The reality is Ricky will never be the fire breathing athlete we adore. He is a unique flower, one who is fully aware of his own confusing legacy: “It’s like the open-minded, spiritual person and the football player, they get into a tug of war,” Williams says. “It’s not pretty. It’s ongoing. I have to find a way to reconcile both those parts of myself so that I can have some kind of peace.”

Ricky’s bruising running style shows little evidence he is searching for this inner-peace on the field. In a season which headlines have been dominated by Vick, the never ending Favre hype machine, and endless dissection of 32 variations of the wildcat formation, it’s a godsend to follow a player who still knows how to lower his shoulder and drive his feet into the chinstrap of the defense.

I doubt we’ll ever know if Ricky actually cares about the outcome of the game. All we can do is enjoy him on the field and try our hardest to appreciate this rare breed of athlete off it. One day Williams will likely disappear from the league with little fanfare. No matter how funky the smell, fans will miss the cloud of smoke he leaves behind.

NCAAF or NFL?

The pageantry of college football versus the blinding speed and precision of the pros: everyone has their preference; but for sports bettors it's near impossible to choose one exclusively over the other.

At the end of the day it's all about building units and bringing home the bread so here's a quick breakdown why bettors should wager their money on pimple-faced college players over the seasoned ironmen of the NFL.

1. In the NFL, parity is king.

Against the spread, parity conquers all. The prime example of this rule is my woeful Detroit Lions (disclaimer: this blog will be discussing the Detroit Lions far more than they deserve or you wish to hear.) The 2008 Lions set an infamous record for futility by putting up a huge donut for the year yet managed to put up a respectable 7-9 record against the spread. Even the most casual NFL handicappers exercised severe caution when facing inflated double-digit Lion spreads: the kitties lost just under half of their games by one touchdown or less. The 2008 Lions point differential and offensive statistics suggest that despite their pathetic record they are miles away from being the worst team in league history. It's tough to argue they are even among the bottom ten since the merger.

Et tu, Barry?

Of the 32 teams in the No Fun League, 23 were within two or less games from .500 against the spread for the season. If that's not a huge red flag for you, all I can do is wish you good luck on your eleven-team parlays this season. You're going to need it.

For those of you still brave enough to test the waters, the top NFL teams ATS in 2008 were the Titans (12-3-1) and Ravens (12-4). The Saints (10-5-1) and Eagles (10-6) fared well but there's a significant drop off to mediocrity after these four teams. The worst teams ATS were the Jaguars (4-12) and Broncos (4-11-1). Don't forget to factor in the high turnover on NFL squads during the current salary cap era has made worst to first division turnarounds possible (unless you're the Lions).

2. Freedom of information.

The days of smoke and mirror shows locking bettors out from the inside scoop on their favorite teams are over. There is no lack of information nowadays; college powerhouse programs have paparazzi rivaled coverage; NFL teams welcome documentary film crews into their once sacred training camps. There's one problem with the wealth of access we have to injury reports, depth charts, practice updates: the oddsmakers have more of it. The house has forged relationships with scouts, boosters, even disgruntled league employees (Tim Donaghy, anyone?)
If only this man had swallowed his whistle before the over hit...

Unless you're Ace Rothstein, your sources end here. The slight edge for us is that it's difficult for the house to have insider information on all 120 FBS Division I-A teams (not to mention the 200 programs who often stroll into town for off-season slaughter). It's easier to cap your alma mater versus directional university state when you are familiar with obscure local conferences. Compare this to an interdivisional battle in the NFL: there's no angle the house won't have covered.

3. Scheduling

A 42-yard field goal in the NFL? Chalk up three points. But can anyone rely on Florida International's freshmen kicker four months removed from prom to boot it through the uprights with the game on the line?

What about the fan-friendly overtime rules in college? A hard earned under can transform into an undeserving over in two quick possessions.

This is another example of the increased volatility in college football. There is an gargantuan talent disparity between high profile programs such as Oklahoma and USC compared to a Temple or Montana St. When you have 5-star studs going up against junior college walkons; you're gonna find 50-point spreads.
Lock of the day: manboobs on the moneyline.

Volatility for us wannabe handicappers is good; across the board parity is not. We know we can't rely on the unknown teenage kicker so we either fade or avoid him. 50-point spreads can be intimidating but if you know the Western Lutheran Community College is only coming into town for a quick paycheck and their starting QB didn't even make his varsity high school team you can lay the points with real confidence.

I don't know if there's anything better in this world than 12 hours of exercise-free HD, pizza, and Keystone light on a Sunday afternoon. I just don't think it's worth losing your couch over. Build your units on Saturday and coast for stress free Sundays. Unless you're rooting for the Lions.